Saskatchewan led the way on reopening plans, but its successors have opted to follow different paths that use a wider range of metrics.
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Canada’s four largest provinces have now followed Saskatchewan in releasing a reopening plan, and none have chosen to precisely match Premier Scott Moe’s vaccine-only approach.
But Alberta Premier Jason Kenney came the closest on Wednesday, laying out a plan that, in many ways, moves even more quickly than Moe’s. Kenney confidently predicted that “the Calgary Stampede will be back on.”
Every premier claims his plan is prudent, cautious and the path to the best summer compatible with the exigencies of public health. Yet their governments have come to different conclusions about how to pare back restrictions, and what measurements they need to take along the way.
The situation
Of the five provinces that have now released reopening plans — Saskatchewan, Quebec, British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta — Saskatchewan’s current case rates are middling. Over the seven days up to May 25, Saskatchewan has posted 83 cases per 100,000 population. That’s about the same as Ontario at 80, better than Alberta at 101, but worse than British Columbia at 50. Quebec leads the way with 44 cases per 100,000 population over that seven-day period.
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Saskatchewan had persistently led the country in delivering first-dose vaccines. But other provinces have been catching up, according to national data current to May 15. Quebec was ahead of Saskatchewan — just barely — and British Columbia is nipping at our heels. All three provinces were around 47 per cent that week.
The provinces that have so far held off releasing reopening plans are either further behind on their vaccination campaigns, or dealing with stubbornly high case rates (Manitoba, which recently tightened restrictions).
The metrics
Saskatchewan’s plan is all about vaccines. The pace of vaccination governs how quickly the province moves through its three steps, set for May 30, June 20 and, tentatively, the first week of July. It only takes account of first doses, and there are no specific thresholds based on cases, hospitalizations or deaths.
Other provinces have chosen to use at least some of those metrics. Though predominantly vaccine guided, Alberta’s plan requires hospitalizations to stay below 800, and keep declining, to get to Step 1 of its three-step plan. They’ll have to fall below 500 to move to Step 2. But considering hospitalizations are already below 600, that’s not a high hurdle.
British Columbia wanted to see cases and hospitalizations “stable” to move to Step 1, which it hit on Tuesday, the same day it released its plan. For Step 2, cases will have to be “declining,” while Step 3 will require low case counts and declining hospitalizations. Both must be “low” for Step 4. Each step depends on meeting thresholds for first-dose vaccination, with a goal of 70 per cent of adults to reach Step 3 — just like in Saskatchewan.
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Ontario’s plan also has vaccination at its centre, but it differs in setting thresholds for second doses to move to steps 2 and 3. Passing from one step to the next also requires “positive trends” in other health indicators.
Quebec’s plan is unique in that it doesn’t really pin down metrics. It merely sets dates for all but a final step, which depends on the “epidemiological situation” and reaching full two-dose vaccination for 75 per cent of those 12 and over.
Public health expert Nazeem Muhajarine sees advantages in plans that account for epidemiological metrics, like case rates. But none of them are clear enough for his liking.
The steps
The logic of the plans is similar — outdoor before indoor and small gatherings before large ones — though they start from different places. Saskatchewan bars and restaurants are already open. Outdoor gatherings are already allowed. For some provinces, the early steps of their reopening plans will merely bring them in line with where Saskatchewan is now.
Ontario’s Step 1 will permit some non-essential retail and outdoor restaurant dining. Outdoor sports are slated for Step 2, later than in Saskatchewan’s updated plan. Religious services — never fully closed in Saskatchewan — don’t come back until Step 2. Indoor dining doesn’t resume until Step 3.
Ontario expects Step 1 to come on June 14. It foresees gaps of at least three weeks after that, as in Saskatchewan.
B.C.’s steps look more like Saskatchewan’s. The restrictions for table sizes at bars and restaurants are the same in Step 1 for both provinces, though Saskatchewan allows larger indoor private gatherings. Both give outdoor sports and gyms an early break. But B.C. is more cautious on travel, which won’t even open up province-wide until Step 2.
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The “earliest date” for Step 1 is June 15, while Step 3 could come on July 1. By then, most restrictions will fall off, but a final stage will have to wait until September.
Alberta will have to catch up to Saskatchewan after bringing in stronger restrictions amid its spring surge. Its Step 1 will manage that by re-opening places of worship, retail, restaurants and personal services with restrictions. Step 2 goes further and Step 3 goes all the way — with Kenney stating that essentially all restrictions will disappear at that point.
Kenney’s plan starts later than Saskatchewan’s, with most of Step 1 set for June 1. But then it moves more rapidly, since it only requires a two-week pause between each step. If all goes according to plan, that means Alberta could be fully open before Saskatchewan, perhaps as early as June 28.
Quebec’s plan is tough to compare with the others, since it works partly by region and sets specific dates. It’s notable in allowing stadiums and concert halls to reopen relatively early in the plan — on May 28 — with capacity up to 2,500, so long as they have assigned seating and are broken up into sections of 250. But bar terraces and outdoor sports can’t open until later in Quebec, on June 11.
The reviews
For Muhajarine, most of the plans fall short. They don’t follow the conservative guidance of the Public Health Agency of Canada, which advises waiting until a sizeable share of the population is fully vaccinated before making any big moves to loosen up.
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“To me, all of these seems rushed, seemingly in order to meet some events in the summer where large numbers of people gather,” he said, referring to the provincial plans. “There is no science or evidence behind these reopening criteria.”
The best of the bunch, in Muhajarine’s view, seems to be Ontario, which at least makes some allowance for second doses and moves at a more cautious pace. His ideal plan would go beyond merely setting down what can open when, and lay down how provinces would deal with a variant-fuelled “flare up” that causes numbers to rise sharply.
But it’s clear that business groups are more smitten with the plans coming out of the Prairies. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business panned Ontario’s cautious approach, but was mostly positive about Saskatchewan’s.
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